A healthy distrust BY AL DIAMON

Everybody knows it’s true.

Teen suicides in Maine have reached crisis proportions.

Everybody knows it’s true because the Portland Press Herald ran a series of lengthy stories last November telling us so. The paper then followed up with a seemingly unending stream of articles, editorials, and columns restating that claim.

No responsible news organization would devote that much space to something that wasn’t correct (except maybe CBS News, the New York Times, and USA Today). Nor would a reputable publication nominate itself for a Pulitzer Prize (in the category of Exceptionally Long Stories That Hardly Anybody Actually Reads) if the material in question wasn’t thoroughly vetted.

The articles contained some alarming statistics: "From 1999 to 2001, Maine’s suicide rate for 15- to 19-year-olds was 72 percent higher than New England’s and nearly 50 percent higher than the national rate."

What got considerably less emphasis in the series was this little fact: The total number of suicides among 15- to 19-year-old Mainers between 1999 and 2001 was six.

The stories also claimed the Maine Youth Suicide Prevention Program, created in 1997 after nearly two years of study, was ineffective. This prompted Gov. John Baldacci to order his newly appointed Children’s Cabinet (motto: We Don’t Want to Go to Bed at 8 O’clock. We Want to Stay Up and Watch South Park) to review state policies to figure out what went wrong. Undoubtedly, that will take another two years, after which the Press Herald can print another interminable series on how things are still screwed up, thereby giving the paper yet another shot at a Pulitzer.

Let’s be clear: Teen suicide is a serious problem. Anything that can be done to reduce the number of kids who take their lives should be encouraged.

Everybody knows that’s true.

But here’s something equally true: Maine’s teen-suicide rate may not be rising. It might even be declining. The Press Herald somehow forgot to mention that possibility, even after it was called to the paper’s attention.

On February 25, Dennis Bailey, political consultant and ex-press secretary for former Governor Angus King (the guy who started the allegedly ineffective suicide-prevention program), sent an email to Barbara Walsh, the reporter who wrote most of the suicide stories. Bailey pointed out that, according to the annual "Kids Count" report published by the nonprofit Maine Children’s Alliance, teen suicide in Maine has declined significantly in the last decade and a half.

Bailey provided the Press Herald with corroborating data from the state Department of Health and Human Services, which showed that in the five-year period covering 1989 through 1993, the rate of suicides per 100,000 people aged 10 to 19 years old was 8.1. For the five years covering 1997 through 2001, the figure dropped to 7.4. The latest number, covering 1998 to 2002, declined to 6.3.

"I don’t recall reading these statistics in any of your reporting on this issue," Bailey wrote. "It would seem to me that the decline over the last 15 years is relevant to your story, and may actually indicate that the state has been doing something right in addressing teen suicide, instead of failing to address it, as your reporting alleges."

Bailey said if he were still the governor’s press secretary, he’d have advised his boss against setting up a new task force. Instead, he’d have urged him to tell his cabinet, "Keep up the good work. We’ve got a long way to go, but we’re making progress."

But let’s face it, you don’t win Pulitzers for stories about how the state is "making progress."

Linda Fullerton, the Press Herald’s assistant managing editor for features, emailed Bailey. "In our research," Fullerton wrote, "we could not support your numbers or your interpretation that there has been a long-term decline. Suicide rates have stayed steady in recent years without significant changes in trends."

Fullerton cited statistics to prove her point. In 1999, she said, the teen-suicide rate was 6.7 per 100,000. In 2002, it was 6.85.

Fullerton is correct — if a teenager is somebody between the ages of 10 and 24. Because virtually all the increase in deaths came among those 20 or older.

"Personally, I don’t consider a 24-year-old a teenager," wrote Bailey. "The pressures and problems that would drive a 24-year-old to suicide are far different from those affecting 12- and 15-year-olds."

Bailey never expected the newspaper to drop its crusade for better suicide prevention. All he wanted was for more information to be included in the Press Herald’s stories. Because omitting relevant numbers — particularly numbers at odds with the paper’s official position — might lead somebody to make poor decisions on public policy. To date, those contrary figures haven’t made it into print.

Obviously, the Press Herald is less interested in public policy than Pulitzers.

Which means that what everybody knows is true — might not be.

Put me in the know by sending your comments to ishmaelia@gwi.net