Undoing ruin BY AL DIAMON

I was feeling uneasy about Maine’s financial prospects until I saw a new TV spot produced by the state Department of Economic and Community Development (motto: If We Didn’t Exist, You Wouldn’t Notice).

"Maine is becoming one of the country’s most enterprising new economies," the ad proclaimed, "a special place to live and a great place to do business." Governor John Baldacci’s smiling face appeared on camera. "So if you’re searching for a business location that offers the best of both worlds," he said, "then think Maine."

Now, I’m no longer uneasy.

I’m scared to death.

Baldacci, who long ago gave up on making any meaningful changes to improve the economy — such as cutting taxes, streamlining regulations, or producing state budgets that don’t rely on selling off liquor, lottery, or restroom concessions — appears to have decided public relations can accomplish what politics can’t. He’s just going to pretend everything is swell and hope voters are dumb enough to believe him.

"We are building sustainable new industries and fortifying traditional sectors by adopting new technologies," the governor wrote in a June 30 op-ed piece in the Bangor Daily News.

One day earlier, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis released figures showing Maine’s gross state product — the total value of goods and services produced — grew more slowly in 2004 than any other New England state. A lot more slowly. While GDP jumped 4.9 percent in the region, Maine saw an increase of just 3.8 percent.

During a mid-July tour of media outlets, Baldacci told newspaper editors, "The state is in a much better financial position."

Than what? Somalia?

The economic forecasting group Global Insights has placed Maine among the three worst states for employment growth, with little hope of improvement before 2008 — and that assessment was made before we knew about the potential loss of 12,000 jobs due to base closures in Kittery, Brunswick, and Limestone. Add to that the precarious situation at Bath Iron Works, as it awaits federal decisions on destroyer contracts, and at MBNA, as it awaits the impact of its sale to Bank of America, and it’s no wonder some experts are predicting a decade of disaster.

Not our guv, though.

"[O]ur communities are being recognized as some of the best places in the country to do business," he said in a speech in Oakland on June 17.

Technically, that’s correct. If you’re the sort of corporate executive who pays close attention to publications such as fDi magazine, you know Maine has been rated tops in the country for quality of life. Regular readers of the American City Business Journals have learned Portland is the hottest market in the nation for small companies. Inc. magazine gives both Portland and Lewiston-Auburn high marks as places to do business. And a Boyd Company study found Portland was the 15th most affordable city in the US in which to start a bio-tech operation.

Which is nice, I guess. Even though it doesn’t do a damn thing to make any of the bad stuff go away.

Former state economist Charles Colgan told the Bangor paper the state was facing "potentially severe problems" over the next 10 years. Central Maine Power chief economist John Davulis was more pessimistic, predicting a recession and a sharp decline in housing values within five years.

Baldacci’s solution: Pay no attention to the Chicken Littles.

"[T]he defeatist rhetoric is unjustified," he wrote in a Maine Sunday Telegram op-ed on May 22. "Reading the newspapers, the average citizen — or business person from out of state looking to locate a branch here — might think the Maine economy were going down the tubes, even without the base closing threat."

The governor is correct. Not about the economy, but about how the average citizen perceives it. According to a survey conducted in May by Critical Insights, 50 percent of Mainers believe the state’s fiscal condition is worse than a year ago, 39 percent think it’s unchanged, and just nine percent (nearly all of them named Baldacci) claim it’s improved. As for the future, 51 percent expect the state’s financial health to decline in the next 12 months.

Considering this sample of public opinion, the governor’s unfettered optimism may prove to be a poor campaign strategy. Feeding the voters fiscal fluff didn’t work for the first George Bush back in 1992, because the average wage earner was convinced the economy was in a persistent vegetative state. Bush’s claim to the contrary (even though it turned out to be correct) only made him appear detached from reality.

Trying to stuff something the public doesn’t believe down its throat hasn’t proved a successful method of gathering votes in nearly 2500 years. As Pericles of Athens pointed out back then, "Although only a few may originate a policy, we are all able to judge it."

Or, as the Athenian might have updated his advice for Baldacci: When those in power fail to originate any policy, we all still get to do the judging.

Render your verdict by emailing me at ishmaelia@gwi.net