In the lobby (continued)

Item: The governor’s much-celebrated Dirigo Health Plan, which he claimed would lead to universal health coverage, is off to a faltering start. It is too expensive for many small businesses and individuals because his no-new-taxes pledge prevents its being subsidized to any significant extent. But Dirigo is the pride and joy of Democratic liberals. "Dirigo is going to have to be more successful," warns Representative Koffman, if Baldacci is going to keep his standing among Democrats.

Item: The governor’s vigorous and successful opposition to the initiated referendum bill to ban bear baiting did not endear him to its many supporters among women and urban folk, who tend to vote Democratic.

Item: Baldacci’s proposal to allow Sunday hunting is generating big opposition statewide. Although no polls have been published on the issue, the consensus of State House observers is that "it’s going over like a fart in church," as one lobbyist put it, and that many Democrats are opposed.

But the big beef a number of Democratic legislators have with Baldacci is his eagerness to slash services to balance the spectacularly creaking and groaning state budget while he refuses to consider a tax hike as an alternative. And while proposing a cut of $140 million to the Department of Health and Human Services alone, he is planning a $53-million giveaway to businesses and individuals in additional tax cuts beyond last month’s property-tax relief.

His administration cites a Republican trickle-down, supply-side economic philosophy to justify continuing to cut taxes at a time of fiscal crisis. His budget planners say publicly that tax cuts, by putting more money into the hands of corporations and investors, will stimulate the economy, and economic growth will help everyone.

Many economists dispute this theory, however, especially its application on the state level, and progressives simply can’t accept that disabled people’s services are on Baldacci’s chopping block when a huge business tax break such as BETR, the Business Equipment Tax Rebate program, isn’t.

"The BETR program has grown exponentially," complains Senator Strimling. "It was $5 million [annually] eight years ago. It’s $75 million now."

LIBERAL CONTORTIONS

In convincing the liberals to vote for the massive property-tax relief bill in January, Baldacci put them in an extremely awkward position. Given the $500-million-or-so shortfall between expected state tax revenues and expenditures over the next two years, over and above the $247 million to be doled out to the towns and cities, and given Baldacci’s no-new-taxes pledge, they had to have known that he would propose budget cuts to pay for the property-tax cuts.

They must have known, too, that there was a good chance the cuts would stick, given that Republicans are almost as numerous as Democrats in the Legislature and their sentiment for cuts to state services is strong. Thus, there would be an almost insurmountable difficulty in mustering a two-thirds vote to override a gubernatorial veto of a tax increase.

So the awkward question they have had to face is: Did they sell out the poor, the sick, and the disabled for the political benefit of being able to say they were for property-tax relief — as well as out of obedience to the governor?

That’s exactly what they did, according to Representative Twomey, a rare Democrat who was against the property-tax-relief bill. "When I went to the [Democratic] caucus and I asked how we were going to pay for it, they shut me down. But I told them I wasn’t going to drink their Kool-Aid."

"In the end they lined up and marched over the cliff," observes Senator Mills about the Democrats. "LD 1 [the property-tax relief bill] sucked all the oxygen out of town. Everyone knew there would be cuts to the budget. They told themselves, ‘We’ll figure out how to restore the money,’ " but without knowing how.

This is what many of them say in their defense: They plan to work for some kind of a tax increase or another tax reform to bring in more revenues, despite Baldacci’s opposition.

"We’re going to be aggressive," promises Herbert Adams.

The most commonly heard scheme is a penny increase in the sales tax or a broadening of the sales tax base to cover consumer purchases like lawyers’ and accountants’ services and dry cleaners’ and ski-ticket sales.

"Some of us are going to challenge the governor to be fiscally responsible," says Representative Lerman. "People in the state will support an increase in the sales tax as long as it goes to property-tax relief or to fund needed services that invest in our future."

"My hope was that we could find a way to fund it," says Representative Marilyn Canavan of Waterville, another Democrat, explaining why she voted for the property-tax reduction and that she would support a one-cent sales tax increase and the tax’s broadening. "Most of my constituents say they would support" the one-cent hike, she adds.

Representative Faircloth of Bangor has proposed taxing "frills" (sometimes known as "sins") such as soda, alcohol, and cigarettes. He believes Baldacci is too wedded to his no-new (qualified by "broad-based") taxes pledge to accept any other kind of tax increase, and he is optimistic that the governor will come around. Peter Mills concurs that this kind of tax could be the ultimate resolution to the legislative Democrats’ and the governor’s face-off.

So far, though, no Democratic legislator has taken a prominent leadership role to "push back," as Senator Strimling puts it, against Baldacci’s cuts and for new taxes, including members of leadership. Ironically, in the legislative debate over the property-tax-reform bill, it was a Republican, Senator Mills, who offered an unsuccessful amendment to raise the sales tax to help pay for it.

Even the liberal reform organizations and groups that represent various constituencies that would be hard hit by Baldacci’s budget have as yet been unable to provide strong leadership. When their coalition, Taxpayers for a Fair Budget, met at a recent Augusta conference to strategize how to counter the Baldacci budget cuts and get a new tax passed, no firm strategy emerged.

The conference’s organizer, the Maine Citizen Leadership Fund, has worked with Democratic Representative Ben Dudley of Portland to create a bill that would raise and broaden the sales tax. But a discouraged-sounding Rob Brown, a tax-reform specialist with the group, says it’s "fruitless" to expect it to pass this year. The bill also would raise the lodging tax and create a new top income-tax bracket of 10 percent for incomes over $100,000.

THE LONG RANGE

Baldacci has strengths to enable him to resist pressure. As governor, he has the veto, a media megaphone, well-honed political skills, patronage, and popularity. In a recent Strategic Marketing Services survey, 60 percent of those polled characterized his job performance as good. His unpretentious, spaghetti-supper manner has an appeal in a television-mediated age when personality may count for more than political positions and when many voters like politicians who do not seem superior to them.

Baldacci also continues to appeal to some liberals because he is liberal on some issues. He supports gay and abortion rights, for example, and single issues drive the votes of a number of Democrats. Strimling, for instance, cites gay rights, Dirigo Health, and an overhaul of the criminal sentencing laws as reasons he continues in a general sense to support Baldacci.

Another Baldacci strength is the paucity of people in his party who could realistically challenge him in a primary race. This reality is to some extent the result of term limits, which diminishes the ability of legislators and constitutional officers (like the attorney general and secretary of state) to build a power base.

Baldacci’s political future, however, depends greatly on how well he manages this legislative session — on whether he can avoid a bitter, wounding Democratic revolt against him. While a primary challenge might be a remote possibility — even if he is politically wounded — a serious, publicly funded Green opponent might pick up enough disaffected liberals to give him a real run — or she or he might peel off enough liberals from the Democrats to elect the Republican candidate.

In the end, under pressure, Baldacci could abandon his no-tax-increase pledge. But the Republicans might make hay with this development, and then he’d face trouble from conservative voters, a constituency to whom he heavily plays. In any case, the first session of the 122nd Legislature promises to be messy for all — and tricky for John Baldacci.

Lance Tapley can be reached at ltapley@prexar.com