Cianchette vs. Mills (so far) (continued)
	Peter Cianchette’s 8 pledges in 2002 1. I will never support a budget that grows state spending faster than Maine workers’ paychecks. 2. I will never support an increase in the tax burden. 3. I will introduce a plan to cut taxes by 20 percent over five years. 4. I will introduce a constitutional amendment requiring a 2/3 vote of the Legislature to raise taxes. 5. I will set priorities for the state budget so that education, health care, and programs that help the truly needy will be funded first. 6. I will propose reforms that make health care affordable and portable for all Mainers. 7. I will support an education system that provides our students with the tools they need to achieve in a strong Maine economy. 8. I will reintroduce to the big spenders in Augusta two words they have forgotten: "no" and "veto." Source: "On the Road to Growth," Cianchette gubernatorial campaign document, 2002.

BUMPS ON THE ROAD

One big obstacle Mills may have to overcome is Cianchette’s domination of the GOP party structure. For example, while Randy Bumps is chairman of the Maine Republican Party and supposedly neutral in the primary, he also is Cianchette’s business partner in the Cianchette Group.

"I’m very open with the candidates," Bumps says when asked about a potential conflict of interest. He says he has heard no objection raised from Republicans.

Nevertheless, "I’m pleased that Peter is running," he admits, adding that he expects Cianchette to be the nominee.

State Senator Arthur Mayo of Bath, who was a Republican before very recently becoming a Democrat, sees Cianchette as also having the leg up on Mills because he represents "the conservative wing of the Republicans," he says, and this wing is now "in the ascendancy." And he believes that if Mills goes the publicly funded Clean Election route, the money provided "may not be enough for the primary."

But another Republican, the dean of Maine political experts, Bowdoin government professor and pollster Chris Potholm, has a different take on the contest between Mills and Cianchette.

Here is a voicemail message he left for this reporter: "My phone has been ringing pretty much nonstop all day from Republicans who are extremely excited about Peter Mills. They seem to think he really does know what to do, and he’s got a thoughtful set of programs. He’s certainly going to emerge as a very strong and a more moderate candidate." (Potholm says he’s not working for Mills.)

Potholm has long maintained that a hard-shelled Republican conservative cannot win high office in Maine. As evidence he points to moderates Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, John McKernan, Bill Cohen, and others.

He suggests Mills will position himself in this lineup and peg Cianchette as a "true believer," conservative Bush Republican. Potholm disagrees with Mayo that Mills’s sometimes less-conservative views will hurt him in the primary. Referring to his polling, he says: "I have not seen any change in the Republican set of values in Maine."

He agrees with Mayo, however, that public financing, if Cianchette eschews it and spends heavily, might restrict Mills’s ability to get his message across.

The Democrats’ angle on Cianchette is already apparent: They will make hay over the fact that he ran Bush’s re-election campaign in the state.

"He will bring Bush’s attitude and policies to Maine," Democratic State Senate majority leader Michael Brennan of Portland says, echoing a news release on Cianchette from the state Democratic Party. Polls have shown Bush to be unpopular in Maine; Democratic nominee John Kerry easily beat him here in 2004. Brennan also dismisses Cianchette’s four years in the Legislature. Noting that he served on the Taxation Committee, Brennan says Cianchette is unlikely to do much about tax policy as governor, "if he’s as effective as he was as a legislator."

As for Mills, Brennan believes he saw him veering to the right as this past legislative session wore on and he got closer to deciding to run for governor. He thinks Mills’s leadership of this spring’s petition drive for a people’s veto of the Democrats’ $450-million borrowing plan was "politically motivated." The petition drive is a sore point for legislative Democrats. Merely the threat of a referendum caused the Democrats to rescind the unpopular plan.

Putting Mills, Cianchette, and Baldacci side by side, there are some surprising parallels and divergences. When a voter doesn’t pay attention to the details (and most voters don’t), she or he will not see great differences on the hot-button social issues. They all support gay rights and "choice" on abortion. And looking at them with the small end of the telescope on economic issues, they all call for reducing growth in state spending (and Baldacci can claim to have done it) and regionalizing government expenditures to save money. Baldacci and Cianchette favor tax-free zones for businesses (and Baldacci has established them) and have made promises of no tax increases. On the economic front, from a progressive’s perspective, Baldacci and Cianchette both are pretty conservative, while Mills could be described as both more liberal and conservative than either Baldacci or Cianchette. This past session, he proposed a temporary one-cent increase in the sales tax to bridge the yawning gap between revenues and expenditures, and his doubts about corporate welfare contrast greatly with Baldacci and Cianchette. On the other hand, the dramatic changes he would make to the state-government pension, debt, and Medicaid systems could be considered daringly conservative.

Of course, whatever the planks of these candidates’ platforms, the gubernatorial race may be decided by such things as skilful advertising, money for that advertising, the impression the news media create of a candidate’s inevitability, and the candidate’s personality.

In any case, a real gubernatorial race with a real choice is now underway.

Lance Tapley can be reached at ltapley@prexar.com